Gold price prediction today: Gold price outlook has turned cautious and the upside momentum seems to have subsided for now, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Here’s what he has to say:Gold has been hovering in a narrow range of Rs 150,000-155,000 since the past few weeks. After recovering from the recent correction, the daily structure remains mixed as prices continue to struggle around the 20-day average. The recent rebound from the Rs 148,000–150,000 region shows buying interest at lower levels, although the failure to sustain above Rs 160,000 suggests that upside momentum has moderated.From Bollinger Bands perspective, the 20-day average is placed at Rs 154,235, while the upper band stands at Rs 160,266 and the lower band at Rs 148,205. Gold is currently just below the middle band, making Rs 154,200–155,000 the immediate hurdle.A sustained move above this zone could strengthen the recovery towards Rs 157,000 and subsequently Rs 160,000–160,300. Based on the recent swing from ~ Rs 140,000 to Rs 164,000, Fibonacci retracement levels are placed near Rs 158,300 (23.6%), Rs 154,800 (38.2%), Rs 152,000 (50%) and Rs 149,200 (61.8%). Prices are currently trading between the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, making Rs 152,000 an important near-term support.A break below Rs 152,000 could expose Rs 149,000–148,200, while holding above it may encourage another recovery attempt. Overall, the weekly bias remains neutral with a slight negative tilt below Rs 152,000. Immediate support is placed at Rs 152,000, followed by Rs 149,000–148,200, while resistance is seen at Rs 155,000, Rs 158,300 and Rs 160,000–160,300.Gold enters the week with a cautious undertone as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike in three years and await high-level US-China talks. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% last week, with Chair Kevin Warsh reiterating policymakers’ commitment to returning inflation towards the 2% target.Although Treasury yields initially eased as the decision reduced uncertainty surrounding the policy path, the 10-year yield subsequently rebounded towards 5%, keeping pressure on non-yielding bullion. Fed projections suggesting the possibility of another increase by December, alongside expectations that inflation may not return to target until 2029, have kept higher-for-longer rate risks firmly in focus.Attention now shifts towards talks between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, where tariffs, trade restrictions and artificial intelligence are expected to feature prominently. Any signs of progress could reduce safe-haven demand, while renewed trade friction may provide support to bullion. Middle East uncertainty also remains elevated following fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, although softer crude oil prices and prospects of renewed US-Iran diplomatic engagement have reduced immediate concerns surrounding another energy-driven inflation shock.Gold therefore remains caught between elevated Treasury and real-yield pressures on one side and geopolitical, trade and fiscal uncertainty on the other. For the week ahead, US-China developments, Treasury yields, the dollar, crude oil and Fed rate expectations are likely to remain the principal drivers of gold’s direction.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
