Gold price prediction today: Both gold and silver prices are expected to continue seeing volatility in the near term, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold and silver saw sharp, data-driven volatility last week, shaped by rapid shifts in Middle East developments. Gold jumped as much as 2.1% to a one-month high near $4,838/oz, after Iran signalled the Strait of Hormuz was completely open, triggering a weaker USD and softer yields both supportive for bullion. Positioning also turned constructive, with money managers lifting net bullish gold bets to a 4-week high and silver to a 12-week high as of April 14.The rally, however, reversed quickly. Gold fell up to 3.1% (largest drop in over 2 weeks), briefly sliding toward $4,720/oz, as ceasefire uncertainty, a stronger dollar, and firmer yields weighed on prices. Elevated crude kept inflation risks alive, dampening expectations of aggressive Fed easing. Gold still remains 10–11% below peak war levels, indicating a market now range-bound and headline-driven.On the flows front, gold ETFs added 63,091 oz in a single session, extending to 5 consecutive days of inflows. This signals renewed institutional accumulation despite volatility. In contrast, silver ETFs saw outflows of 17,316 oz, with YTD net selling of -7.3%, reflecting more tactical positioning.The gold–silver ratio has remained broadly stable since the start of the war, but recent trends suggest a potential shift. Silver has already shown higher beta, rising ~3.3% in a single session versus gold’s 1% gain. Historically, during phases of industrial and tech optimism, silver tends to outperform and that dynamic is re-emerging.Silver’s medium-term outlook is supported by a tight supply-demand balance. As per the latest Silver Institute report, the 2026 deficit of approximately 46.3 million oz (+15% YoY) is a 6th consecutive annual deficit. Supply is expected to fall approx. 2%, despite +7% increase in recycling. Investment demand (bars & coins) is expected to increase near to 18%. Additionally, silver’s role in solar (≈20% of annual demand) and electronics ties it directly to the AI and energy transition cycle, giving it a structural demand tailwind beyond traditional precious metal drivers.
Gold & Silver: Technical Levels & Near-Term Outlook
Gold (Spot) CMP: $4,755
- Support: $4,300 – $4,450
- Resistance: $4,950 – $5,050
Gold is expected to remain volatile with a broad trading range of $4,300–$5,000 range in the short term, with price action driven by macro and geopolitical factors. Key triggers include US dollar moves, real yields, and Fed expectations (now ~16 bps easing priced vs ~8 bps earlier), along with developments in the Iran–Middle East situation impacting safe-haven demand. While lower real yields provide underlying support, a sustained rally will likely require either a clear dovish Fed pivot or renewed geopolitical escalation.Silver (Spot) CMP: $78
- Support: $75 / $68
- Resistance: $84 / $91
Silver is expected to remain volatile but with a stronger upside bias, supported by its structural deficit (~46.3 mn oz) and growing linkage to the industrial and AI-driven demand cycle. Recent price action already reflects high beta moves (±3% daily swings), indicating heightened sensitivity to macro and risk sentiment. On the downside, strong physical and investment demand is likely to emerge near $75 or below, while on the upside, momentum could drive prices toward the $84–$91 range.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
