Indian student enrolments at UK universities have declined, with new data showing a broader fall in international postgraduate intake ahead of tighter visa rules.A survey by the British Universities International Liaison Association found that 70% of UK universities reported fewer international students joining courses in January 2026, with overall enrolments down by 31% compared to the same period last year.The decline is also reflected among Indian students, with 76% of universities reporting lower enrolments from India. Similar patterns were seen across South Asia, with 82% of universities reporting a drop in students from Pakistan, where numbers fell by an average of 75%, while 65% reported declines from Bangladesh. These markets are increasingly seen as higher risk under the evolving visa framework.The findings suggest universities are already adjusting their recruitment strategies ahead of stricter compliance measures. Around a third of institutions have restricted recruitment in certain countries, while 58% have strengthened credibility checks or interview thresholds. A similar proportion have introduced higher deposits or stricter financial requirements to reduce the risk of visa refusals.According to the press release by BUILA, From June, the UK government will introduce a traffic light system to assess universities’ compliance with visa rules. Institutions will need to keep visa refusal rates below 4% to retain a “green” rating. Those placed in the “amber” category will not be allowed to increase their international student numbers, raising concerns about future growth and competitiveness. About half of the universities surveyed expect to receive at least one non-green rating under the new system.Despite tighter internal controls, universities report continued challenges with visa processing. Around 60% said they had seen higher-than-usual refusal rates from UK Visas and Immigration during the January intake. In addition, 41% flagged delays and issues with interview scheduling, while more than a third raised concerns about inconsistent or unclear reasons for refusals, even when applicants met expected standards.The sector has warned that these trends could deter genuine students and affect the UK’s global standing in higher education. Andrew Bird, chair of BUILA, said: “The UK already operates one of the toughest student visa compliance regimes in the world, and our members fully support protecting its integrity. But the Government keeps shifting the goalposts.”He added: “If introduced as currently proposed, the new system risks significant reputational damage to our world leading higher education sector. It could deter genuine students from applying.”BUILA has urged the government to refine the proposed system, including using “amber” ratings as a warning rather than a trigger for restrictions, and improving transparency in visa decisions with clearer reasons for refusals and better early-warning signals for universities.
