The US is exploring a plan to bring Russian natural gas back into the European market through pipelines crossing Ukraine, in a bid to secure an energy truce between Moscow and Kyiv before winter. The proposal is part of wider efforts to advance peace negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing officials from the US, Europe and Ukraine.The arrangement could see a US intermediary handle the sale of Russian gas, potentially bypassing European sanctions while giving American investors a stake in the business. US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff raised the proposal during their visits to Moscow and Kyiv in September, people familiar with the discussions told the WSJ.The idea faces a major obstacle: Europe’s stated policy of ending its reliance on Russian energy. EU legislation requires member states to phase out all Russian natural gas purchases by the end of 2027. Several European leaders have also ruled out returning to dependence on supplies from a country they consider a major security threat.Yet Washington believes the prospect of reopening a lucrative European market could persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to an energy ceasefire. The proposed route would use the Soviet-era pipeline system connecting Siberia’s Urengoi gas fields to Europe through Ukraine. Kyiv, in turn, could earn much-needed money from transit charges.The proposal had lost momentum last month after Ukraine halted attacks on Russian refineries following pressure from US President Donald Trump. The pause lasted nearly two weeks, even as Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure continued and Moscow began sending diesel to the US. Washington subsequently turned its attention to the possibility of negotiating a wider peace settlement.That pause is now over. Ukraine launched attacks on three major Russian refineries over three days, beginning Friday, bringing the question of an energy truce back into focus. The renewed urgency comes ahead of planned three-way talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi in mid-November. Moscow has so far resisted US efforts to secure such an arrangement, according to the WSJ.
A possible financial incentive for Moscow
The White House has also discussed safeguards to prevent Russia from using gas revenues to bankroll its military campaign. Under one proposal, proceeds from European sales would be placed in an escrow account in a third-party jurisdiction, a senior US official told the WSJ.American negotiators have presented the arrangement to European governments as a way to ease energy costs at a time when the continent is preparing for winter with relatively low gas reserves. They believe access to the European market could give Putin a strong financial reason to accept a deal.The proposal would represent a dramatic shift in Trump’s approach to Russian energy. During his first term, he repeatedly criticised then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel for backing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, warning that the project would leave Germany “captive to Russia”. His administration imposed sanctions on the pipeline in late 2019.Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine reinforced European concerns about the risks of relying on Moscow for energy. Before the war, Russian gas accounted for 45% of Europe’s supplies. That share has since fallen to 11%, with US liquefied natural gas now making up 30% of European consumption.The EU has since moved to dismantle its dependence on Russian gas, with a complete phase-out mandated by the end of 2027. Its stated position is that purchases should not resume even after a comprehensive peace agreement, much less under a temporary ceasefire that leaves Russia’s war effort intact.EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen reiterated that position in an October interview with a Hungarian newspaper, which his office confirmed.“I certainly would not trust Russia. Even if there were peace tomorrow, which we all hope for,” he said.
Europe’s resistance faces a new energy test
Despite the public opposition, the Trump administration believes economic pressures could make European governments reconsider. Some senior officials, however, have privately rejected the idea in strong terms.A senior Nordic official said buying Russian gas again would contradict everything Europe stands for. Another senior official from a large European country likened the proposal to former British leader Neville Chamberlain sacrificing Czechoslovakia to Hitler in exchange for business deals, the WSJ reported.Washington is also considering the possibility of restoring gas supplies through Nord Stream as part of a broader settlement. The US sees such an arrangement as potentially helping not only to end the Ukraine war but also to ease longstanding tensions between Moscow and America’s European allies.A senior US official told the WSJ that Merkel’s mistake had been to pursue the pipeline without first securing a broader security arrangement with Russia that Moscow could accept.The Nord Stream route, however, would be difficult to revive. Nord Stream 1 stopped deliveries in August 2022, while Nord Stream 2 never entered service. Both pipelines were badly damaged in underwater explosions in September 2022, which were attributed to Ukraine. Their restoration would require considerable time and the resolution of major political and regulatory obstacles.The route through Ukraine, on the other hand, offers a quicker alternative. The pipeline network connects to Slovakia and extends towards Austria and Germany. It could be brought back into operation almost immediately, as limited gas flows continued through it until January 2025, despite the ongoing war.US officials have also discussed other economic arrangements during negotiations. One proposal that could significantly lower gas prices across Europe has drawn interest from European leaders, a US official said. However, any such arrangement would be tied to a comprehensive peace deal.The energy situation could further complicate Europe’s position. The conflict involving Iran has disrupted Qatari LNG shipments, leaving cargoes stranded inside the Persian Gulf. Energy prices have climbed globally despite an increase in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.According to the EU, the conflict has added 100 billion euros, or around $112 billion, to Europe’s energy costs. Meanwhile, underground gas storage across the continent is about 75% full, leaving Europe on course to enter winter with reserves below the nine-year average, EU energy regulators said.The prospect of cheaper Russian supplies has also become a political issue in Germany. The far-right Alternative for Germany has made restoring imports of low-cost Russian gas a central plank of its campaign ahead of the 2028 national elections.For Ukraine, the calculation could be different if renewed gas transit forms part of an agreement that protects its energy infrastructure. Diplomats told the WSJ that Kyiv’s backing could make it easier for European governments to reconsider the proposal, particularly if a ceasefire prevents blackouts and a humanitarian crisis in major Ukrainian cities.A collapse of energy supplies could trigger another wave of refugees in the coming months. The risk is compounded by Ukraine’s dwindling air-defence capabilities, with the US restricting supplies of Patriot interceptors amid a global shortage linked to the war on Iran.